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本文摘要:This year’s US election has given rise to plenty of peculiar developments. 今年的美国议会选举引起了很多怪异的事态。

This year’s US election has given rise to plenty of peculiar developments. 今年的美国议会选举引起了很多怪异的事态。Here is another one: Carbon Black, a cyber security firm, has released a poll suggesting that 58 per cent of voters think it likely that electronic voting machines could be cyber-hacked. 这里又有一样:网络安全公司Carbon Black发布民调表明,58%的选民指出电子投票器被侵略的可能性较小。

Indeed, popular concern is so high that 15m voters may refuse to participate, Carbon Black says, noting that voters believe a US insider threat (28 per cent), Russia (17 per cent) and the candidates themselves (15 per cent) pose the biggest risks.Carbon Black称之为,事实上,公众忧虑之甚,以至于1500万选民可能会拒绝接受参与投票。该公司认为,选民指出美国内部人士(28%)、俄罗斯(17%)和候选人本身(15%)是前几大包含风险的危险性因素。


It might seem tempting to dismiss this as marketing, or as a sign of the febrile political mood, but discounting that 58 per cent number that would be a terrible mistake. 我们有可能很更容易想要把上述结果非常简单地归结一种营销造势,或一个表明疯狂政治情绪的标志,但是忽略这个58%的数字将是个相当严重的错误。One reason is that many US government officials quietly share voters’ concerns. 一个原因是,美国很多政府官员私底下也不存在与选民们完全相同的忧虑。Little wonder. 这也不该。

Small cyber breaches of the electoral register have already occurred in Arizona and Illinois. 亚利桑那州和伊利诺伊州的选民名册数据库早已遭过小规模侵略。Several states are thought to be vulnerable to attacks on the election system, particularly those, like Pennsylvania, that use direct-recording electronic machines to tally the vote. 多个州的议会选举投票系统被指出更容易受到反击,尤其是那些用于必要记录电子机器来计票的州,比如宾夕法尼亚州。Pennsylvania, largely thought to be a key battleground state in the upcoming election, may be the largest concern when it comes to electronic voting machines, Carbon Black suggests.Carbon Black认为:宾州在将要举办的议会选举中被指出是关键战场,而这个州的电子投票器有可能是最令人担忧的。

Even if election fears turn out to be misplaced, they highlight a bigger point: a new front is opening up in cyber warfare. 即便关于议会选举的忧虑到头来原本是多虑,它们也凸显了更加最重要的一点:一条新的战线正在网络战争中关上。This has big implications for both political pundits and business leaders.这对政治专家和商界领袖影响根本性。

Two decades ago, it was presumed that hackers aimed to do one of four things: steal money; grab secrets; highlight a political cause; or inflict physical sabotage. 二十年前,人们确认黑客的目标无非是做到以下四件事之一:偷钱、盗取情报、促成世人注目某项政治事业、或导致实际的毁坏。Western intelligence forces have moved to offset those threats. 西方情报部门已采取行动来避免这些威胁。For example, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security are currently running a cyber security awareness month to teach consumers and businesses how to avoid fraud and theft. 例如,美国联邦调查局(FBI)和国土安全局(DHS)目前正在积极开展网络安全意识月活动,教教消费者和企业如何防止遭到欺诈和偷窃。Meanwhile, the US military and DHS have been scrambled to protect so-called systemically important infrastructure from sabotage. 与此同时,美国军队和国土安全局争相维护所谓具备系统重要性的基础设施免受毁坏。

There is intense activity around the US electricity grid, after hackers damaged a Ukrainian grid last year.在去年黑客毁坏乌克兰电网后,针对美国电网也不存在密集的黑客活动。The US election has put a fifth category of risks on the radar: cyber attacks that aim to inflict psychological damage by shattering public trust. 美国议会选举将第五种风险带回了人们的视线中:目的通过挽回公众信任而导致心理上的毁坏的网络攻击。

People have got it all wrong, Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of cyber security group CrowdStrike, recently told me. 人们仅有不晓得了,网络安全公司CrowdStrike的创始人德米特里阿尔佩罗维奇(Dmitri Alperovitch)最近向我回应。(CrowdStrike revealed that hackers, apparently linked to Russia, had infiltrated the Democratic National Committee.)(CrowdStrike透漏,看起来与俄罗斯有关联的黑客之前已渗透到过民主党全国委员会(DNC)的网络)。For the past 30 years everyone has worried about kinetic attacks, say an attack on a grid — we were waiting for a cyber Pearl Harbor. 过去30年,每个人都担忧动力受到反击、也就是电网受到反击——我们仍然在等候一场网络珍珠港事件。But the Russians have always believed that the real value of cyber is psychological warfare and influence.但是俄罗斯人始终认为,网络的确实价值在于心理方面的战争和影响力。


As a senior US intelligence figure recently told a private meeting of business and policy luminaries: What do we do if the key goal of cyber hackers now is not to steal things but undermine trust in things that guide our lives? Intelligence officials are particularly uneasy about the risk of an attack on the financial system, since this is a sector which only functions if there is trust — as the crisis of 2008 showed.正如美国一名高级情报官员最近在一次商界和政界名流齐聚的私人会议上所说的那样:如果现在网络黑客的核心目标仍然是偷东西、而是毁坏我们对提示我们生活的东西的信任,我们怎么办?情报官员十分忧虑黑客不会反击金融系统,因为金融是一个只有在不存在信任的情况下才能长时间运营的领域——正如2008年金融危机所表明的那样。American officials are trying to fight back. 美国官员于是以尝试反攻。Last weekend, for example, the DHS offered to provide cyber security assistance to state governments to help them protect the election. 例如,国土安全局近日回应愿向各个州政府获取网络安全帮助,协助各州维护议会选举免遭网络攻击。

Two dozen states have accepted. 24个州拒绝接受了。But the election is so close, and states so cash-strapped, that it is unclear how effective these defences will be. 但是议会选举日期近在咫尺,许多州又如此囊中羞涩,这些防卫措施的效果如何尚能不确切。

Bafflingly, the DHS has not designated the electoral register as critical infrastructure. 令人困惑的是,国土安全局并没把选民名册订为关键基础设施。It should do this now, so Federal funds can be released for the fight.该部门现在应当这么做到,这样才能让联邦资金以求被用作输掉这场仗。The really big issue, though, is the psychological threat. 不过,确实无非的问题是心理威胁。Donald Trump has called for aggressive counter-attacks in cyber space to provide a display of strength. 唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)敦促在网络空间发动强硬态度反攻,让输掉告诉得意。

Separately, Mr Alperovitch thinks the US government needs to publicly declare that Russia is launching psychological attacks, in order to prepare the public. 此外,阿尔佩罗维奇指出,美国政府必须公开发表宣告俄罗斯正在发动心理反击,从而让公众作好心理准备。In the cold war days, the state department had a department which countered Soviet propaganda, but then it was disbanded, he argues. They need to once again build a strategy for countering Russia’s aggressive influence operations.在世界大战期间,美国国务院曾另设一个部门负责管理反攻苏联的宣传,但后来退出了,他指出,他们必须再度建构起一套战略来对付俄罗斯咄咄逼人的造势活动。The risk of any aggressive action is that it might launch bigger counter-attacks or spread public fear. 采取任何保守行动的风险是,有可能引起更加激烈的反攻或在公众中散播不安情绪。American voters and politicians seem stuck in a nervous waiting game. 美国选民和政治人士或许卡在了紧绷的等候中进退两难。

We had better hope that eventually a new form of cold war-style detente emerges in 21st-century cyber space, as it once did in the physical world. 我们最差期望,在21世纪的网络空间中,也能经常出现一种新的停战——就像曾多次在现实世界中经常出现过的、为世界大战所画上了句号的那种。If not, business leaders need to look at the US election — and prepare for a world where digital trust is a new military plaything.如果没有经常出现,那么商界领袖必须注目美国议会选举,并准备好庆贺这样一个世界,在这个世界里,数字空间里的信任沦为新的被欺骗的对象。


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